I figure that if a 600k house price were to be "corrected" I still think that it could not drop more than 50k and 100k tp be unlikely.

Let's imagine ourselves in a nice happy place where there is no crashing or trouble.

aaaah...I feel better already.....

If it does correct itself here is my projection:

Condo $450,000 will correct to $435,000

Townhomes $575,000 will correct to $560,000

House $800,000 will correct to $765,000

But I highly doubt it will go down. As long as the economy is healthy, there is no way the housing mkt will drop. It will either stay the same or gradually rise at a slow pase.

all those folks in the States highly doubted that their houses would drop in value either. Look at all the forclosures now!

The problem is far less evident in Washington State where the economy is strong... or so I hear.

Apparently it's California that really took it up the poop shoop.

Does the price of housing ever go down ? Or does it just level out for a while?

There will be a lull in sales and maybe a short lived downward trend but the fact is housing doubles every 10 - 12 years

If you own a 600 k house now in 2020 it will be worth 1.2 million

What happens in the meantime is peccadillo unless of course you rent in which case your rental pricing will be on the up while mortgage payments will stay reasonably steady

Good times ahead, damn good times

How hard did LA get hit?

Maybe ur a real estate agent or someone who's recently bought with the hope/idea that your property will keep going up and up? Myself, I am just a middle income earner and I can't afford to buy in this city. Regardless of whether real estate here will keep appreciating, I won't be buying here. So, it's people like you who'll have the whole place to themselves, I guess. Just a bunch of rich people sellin' ta other rich people or the wannabes heavilly into debt up to their ears. All us poor 'uns'll be squeezed out goin' to far away places. But I don't care, because if I bought in Vancouver, it'd cost me every penny that I'll make until I retire. Is too much and too high a price to pay.

The value will only be there if there is a buyer. No buyer, no value.

You guys are all nuts, but party on. I certainly feel less and less sorry for you as time goes by.

Americans were actually "paid" to buy houses. Many of these people bought with 0 down and got some cash out of the deal. That never happened up here.

Oh really?!! We have had similar "Cash back" schemes for many years now. Don't be too sure that we don't have a subprime market. We do unofficially. Maybe not to the degree of the US but we do.

No Ive owned here for 15 years

I recently bought a flip in Central Coq. 532k
Its rented and fortunately I have a break even situation with the income. I will reno it when these folks move out. They have been there 4 years and have signed on until jan 09 so we will see

I will profit on it no matter what happens in the short term.

I could hold out in the hope that there is a correction and hope the initial buy in price would be cheaper but the real estate market is like the stock market. Buy good quality and you will make money.

Vancouver is now and always has been the single best investment a person residing here can make.

You would be stupid not to buy if you possibly can, if you cant then your ###### out of luck.

All this dreaming of the super crash that takes the market below its real value and enables everyone to get in is a pipe dream. Vancouver will never be an affordable market again

We dont have sub prime mortgages. There is interest only options but they are very hard to get unless you are a repeating borrower. Definitely not available to first buyers or low downs and especially not now

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com...ing-bubble.html

read the chart

double every ten years?

same kind of crappy advice as "buy and hold. the stock market always goes up in the long run."

Even though this wannabes blog is a load look at his graph at 83 then 93 then 03

What do you see???????????????????????????????????????

I see a housing market that has gone up in a bubble about three times (massive run up in prices in a short period of time) and then an equally massive drop in prices every time since the 80's. Currently we are at the peak of the highest and most massive run up rise in prices. If we are to follow what has happened 3 times so far in Vancouver real estate history, we should be well on our way towards what appears to be the most massive drop in prices we have ever experienced. Of course, one can certainly argue that in 10 years time the market will go up again, but who the hell wants to hold a negative mortgage (meaning you owe more to the bank than what your house is actually worth) for 10 years.

For those of you who argue that the prices will plateau or just dip a little and keep on going up, dream on, look at that graph and tell me has that ever happened thus far in Vancouver real estate history.

I see that you probably failed statistics.

A 30 year bubble

The highest and most massive run up in history. Oh please. Its been a simple doubling of prices.
How did 20k houses get to 700k? Speculation?

It does hurt when your not in the market but it never was in recent history an easy market to get into

Look at the graph again and look at the base line. Is it zero??????????

Are you to stupid to analyze it?

No wonder you rent

Oh my god, I am glad there are idiots like you, that way I won't have to feel too bad when I see the interviews of morons on the news crying how they lost their shirt. Tips of peaks that last for a year or two does not equate to doubling of prices you freakin moron. You will notice that there is a very very defined line in that graph, it does trend upwards, but it trends upwards very very slowly. Notice how every single time the market peaks for a year or two, it always drops back to balance back out at a little bit above where the baseline of where the previous peak began? This is a very common phenomenon in many markets, especially in real estate though since it is so slowly affected by news and takes an incredibly long time. Each peak to trough on there is atleast a 30% correction if not more.



I don't know where you got the figure of 20K from, but if houses were 20K at one point in time and currently has reached 700k (which is at the peak of this cycle) it is logical to assume that a portion of that increase is due to current speculation, a portion of it is elapsed appreciation and the biggest chunk is simply due to inflation.



I just sold my house 4 months ago and I am going to rent for 2-4 years depending on how far down the market has fallen. Renting is cheaper than owning right now.

The uninformed ramblings of a bull s hit artist


So you sold your house four months ago to rent for up to four years. How convenient for the sake of this thread.

So did you profit? Were you speculating? Obviously you were. Well done.

If you sold out then you must have a good chunk of change to put a down payment on something.

Lets say you put 250 k in the bank then buy a condo and pay no rent or mortgage payments.

The fact is your a liar that is troubled by the good fortune others have made while you sat in your mothers basement.

Loser

bought in 1999, Richmond, No.4 between alderbridge and cambie near odlin park for $280K. Sold 4 months ago for $668K. You still don't understand the point of selling the place was to NOT OWN anything pertaining to real estate in Vancouver. Why would anyone be stupid enough to sell their home believing the market is going to fall to buy a condo that is also going to fall in price?

How bout instead of trying to attack my person with lame accusations, make an attempt to counter argue my very valid points against your incredibly flawed arguments.

You started the name calling chump

So you have 300 or more in the bank

You have to be a genius getting 5%

Paying 15k a year in rent

Actually to be honest I'm paying 24k a year in rent now. Luckily I own a company that I am investing my approx 400K into, its expanding and it already grosses more than a quarter mil in sales a year. However, even if I didn't have my company, I'm still in better shape financially. Simple mathematics dictates that I will be.

I was paying a $1700 mortgage per month, that equates to 20.4k a year. Most idiots think that if you are paying a mortgage you are building equity in your home. However, what they don't realize is that roughly 70%+ of your mortgage payment is pure interest to the bank. Therefore:

Owning:
1700 per month x .70 = 1190 interest per month to the bank.

Factor in a lump sum combo of property maintenance, property taxes and miscellaneous of $400 per month.

The money that was stuck in my house was about 100K, if that 100K was not locked in my property and was placed into something safe like a GIC at 5%, it would fetch me $5000 per year compounded, for simplicity, lets just say $5000 per year, or $417 per month.

Total amount lost owning is $1190 + $400 + $417 = $2007 per month or $24084

Renting

Renting costs $2000 per month

-landlord takes care of costs of property maintenance, property taxes and miscellaneous costs of owning a property.

I pocket 400K which is put in a GIC at 5% interest (my company is projected to make way more than that but for simplicity we will just calculate based on me not having a company) = $20000 interest per year / 12 = +$1667 per month.

Total amount spent renting = $2000 rent - $1667 in interest from 400k in GIC = $333 per month or $3996 per year.

Market

No one knows exactly where the market is going to go, however, I personally believe it will fall, the simple math I just did is easy to figure out for most people with basic knowledge of mathematics and logic and it won't be before long that even ill informed people can figure it out.

Lets just say we hit the middle ground between the bears and the bulls and the market reaches its peak and stays completely flat for years, the mathematics dictate that I stand to gain roughly 20K per year renting.