Here we go. I gave the heads-up at the beginning of the year and now it appears, is coming to pass.
this is no joke...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm...18/cnrbs118.xml

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/06/27/cnbarclays127.xml


://http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/ma...clays127.xml

Marc Faber, a guy I mentioned in another thread, said that most banks are bankrupt and are just hiding their negative assets in some way that they're not visible. Yes, the Fed Reserve has given the troubled (put lightly) USA banks a HUGE amount of freshly printed money. Of course since the Fed Reserve is comprised of private banks, they would never let themselves or their buddies go bankrupt. So the average person has to suffer from the inflationary pain so that the rich banks and corporations can save their wealth.

Good Americans. Too stupid to know that they are being screwed in the ass and it's happening right in front of them. Americans so brainwashed and complacent.

well another so called expert I saw on CNN the other day says he figures the bail out and close failure of that big bank afew months back was the low point of the times and its all uphill from now on.

All the sheeple are asleep, c'mon wake up folks!
While we are antcipating the Beijing comming out party in August, [BTW the Chinese started this collapse/"Nuclear Option"..I posted before] the financial world is collapsing around us.
It appears for the next 3 months we are on High Alert!

so-called expert lied for whatever reason Duce..not true!

What is going to kill the banks and the investment houses are a tiny thing called derivitives...... the air is slowly coming out of that bubble... and when she starts to let go hang on to your hat.... it is going to be a heavy hitter...... the DOW already lost in the month of june the same percentage points drop as what there was in 1929. hold on folks July is going to be interesting.....

All the big data reports are coming out July 3rd just before the holiday. I'll definitely be watching, strangely most people won't be.

The Americans have the most resilient economy on earth so they will pull through. China and India will suffer big time

Everyone knows that this time around things are different.

All economic bad times have ended with war (military industrial complex).

Great Depression - WWII
1970 Oil Crisis - First Gulf War
Current economic turmoil - Bush took the pre-emptive strike an attacked Afghanistan and Iraq (it's not working).

Either the USA's economy tanks big time or prepare for a full scale global military conflict. Israel is an eager beaver frothing at the mouth on the hunt. They want Iran BIG TIME.

hi bonny, I really DON'T know what news groups you subscribe to, however, with your rosy outlook I thought you may want to read this..... cheers


http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article5272.html

Deflationary Debt Deleveraging Hurricanes to Hit US and UK


Congratulations (of sorts) go to the UK as British household debt is highest in history .
British households are now more indebted than those of any other major country in recorded history, it has emerged.

Families in the UK now owe a record 173pc of their incomes in debts, official figures have shown. The ratio of debt to income is higher than any other country in the Group of Seven leading industrialised economies, and is sharply higher than the 129pc of incomes it was five years ago.
Michael Saunders of Citigroup warned that - at 173pc of household incomes - the debt burden is higher even than Japan's when it peaked in 1990, before more than a decade of deflation. Philip Shaw of Investec said: "Although we take the view that the economy will avoid a recession , our confidence is ebbing."

Avoid A Recession?

It will be hard for the US and UK to avoid a depression.

What started as a tropical storm called "Subprime" has intensified in magnitude to engulf Alt-A, HELOCs, credit cards, commercial real estate, municipal bonds, corporate bonds, and the stock market, just as baby boomers are headed for retirement.

If you prefer, you can think of this as Many Hurricanes, Many Eyes .

Barclays Warns Of Financial Storm

Most do not even understand the nature of the storm that is about to hit. Barclays is right at the top of the list. Please consider Barclays warns of a financial storm as Federal Reserve's credibility crumbles .

Barclays Capital has advised clients to batten down the hatches for a worldwide financial storm, warning that the US Federal Reserve has allowed the inflation genie out of the bottle and let its credibility fall "below zero".

"We're in a nasty environment," said Tim Bond, the bank's chief equity strategist. "There is an inflation shock underway. This is going to be very negative for financial assets. We are going into tortoise mood and are retreating into our shell. Investors will do well if they can preserve their wealth."

Barclays Capital said in its closely-watched Global Outlook that US headline inflation would hit 5.5pc by August and the Fed will have to raise interest rates six times by the end of next year to prevent a wage-spiral. If it hesitates, the bond markets will take matters into their own hands. "This is the first test for central banks in 30 years and they have fluffed it. They have zero credibility, and the Fed is negative if that's possible. It has lost all credibility," said Mr Bond.

No Wage Price Spiral

Wage price spirals happen when corporations get into bidding wars over employees, not when they are shoving them out the door by the hundreds of thousands. Mr. Bond must be reporting from Bizarro World. The odds of a wage price spiral in the US are essentially zero as credit is drying up and overcapacity is everywhere you look. Massive Government and Private Sector Job Cuts Are Coming .

This is not Bizarro World, nor it is 1970.

If Barclays is betting on six interest rates hikes in the US with its own money it will likely get carted out in a coffin. Property values are crashing, unemployment is rising, wages are falling, global wage arbitrage is king, and most importantly Peak Credit Has Arrived .

It is impossible to get inflation out of that mix. Berananke could cut interest rates to zero tomorrow and it would not cause inflation, at least as properly defined: a net expansion of money and credit. Banks are strapped for cash. They cannot lend. Businesses do not want to borrow. There is overcapacity everywhere. The Shopping Center Economic Model Is History .

I struggle to see how anyone can get inflation out of that mix. Last Thursday when the stock markets were in a freefall, I asked Is The Inflation Scare Over Yet? Well, I guess it's not.

Fed Has Lost Credibility

However, I will grant Mr. Bond one thing. "The Fed has lost all credibility." I discussed that idea in Things That Have Not Yet Happened in response to Bernanke's absurd claim "Danger of downturn appears to have waned."

Bernanke made that statement on June 9th. On June 26, Bernanke was openly soliciting private equity firms to invest in banks. I discussed this in Fed Looking To Bend Rules To Aid Banks .

Crack-Up Boom In Asia

Actually, I see another statement from Mr. Bond that I agree with, and it is an important one: "Inflation is out of control in Asia. Vietnam has already blown up."

Inflation is indeed out of control in Asia, notably China, India, and Vietnam. That inflation stems from Asia central bankers printing local currency to buy US dollars, in an attempt to keep their export machines going.

Bernanke foolishly calls this a savings glut. Printing money to buy dollars does not constitute savings. It is amazing that a Fed governor does not understand this simple truth.

Besides, it is virtually impossible to have "too much savings". The construct does not even exist!

Peak oil, in conjunction with a crack up inflationary boom in China is masking deflation in the US and pending deflation in the UK. Those focused on rising energy and food prices are missing the boat.

However, I suspect China is going to slam on the brakes after the Olympics. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index sure acts as if something is coming down the pike.

$SSEC Weekly Chart
Who's In Control?

Ben Bernake at the Fed, Mervyn King at the Bank of England, and Jean-Claude Trichet at the ECB are not in control of what is about to happen. When it comes to commodity prices,peak oil and China's willingness to allow its economy to overheat are going to be the driving forces. Trichet can hike all he wants and it will not matter much to the price of oil. However, it may crush individual economies in the EU.

This does not mean hiking is wrong (although it likely is), it simply means that hiking to rein in gasoline and food prices, two rather inelastic needs, is beyond silly.

Implications of Peak Credit

When it comes to the collapse in credit, the above Central Banks are powerless to do a thing about it. This is to be expected now that we are on the backside of Peak Credit .

The saturation point has been reached. It took decades but we have finally arrived. None of the financial engineering jobs that fueled this credit boom will ever be needed again. SIVs, Conduits, Toggle Bonds, Covenant Lite loans are all dead for years, more likely decades to come. Add to that liar loans, Pay Option Arms, insane leverage, and numerous other ridiculous lending arrangements. And if those things are not coming back, we do not need Wall Street shills to securitize that garbage and pitch it to unsuspecting suckers.

In addition to financial engineering jobs, there was a boom in commercial real estate, home depots, remodeling companies, landscaping, furniture, appliances, plumbing, heating, air conditioning, restaurants, and even things like grass seed.

There is no source of jobs to replace what has been lost and what will be lost. Discretionary spending is dead. Boomers about to retire are about to get religion . Sadly, it's too late. Savings they thought they had in their house, have now vanished into thin air. It was all a mirage in the first place, but mountains of credit has been extended on the basis of that mirage. Trillions of dollars of imagined wealth has gone up in smoke. Trillions of dollars more are about to.

Deflation Has Set In

It is amusing that in the face of this carnage, many are still screaming inflation, stagflation, or even hyperinflation simply because food and energy prices are rising. Deflation is here and now in the US. Deflation is knocking on the door of the UK and Eurozone. And there is nothing that can be done about it.

Can The Fed Print Its Way Out?

Some will insist that I am wrong, that the Fed can print. Well the Fed can print, but the Fed cannot spend. In addition, the Fed cannot give money away, nor would the Fed even if it could. Finally, the Fed cannot force banks to lend or businesses or consumers to borrow.

Bank credit is contracting with the Fed Funds rate at 2%. Bank credit would not be going much of anywhere even at 0% in my estimation. The reason is simple: banks are insolvent!

The Fed is like the powerless man behind the curtain in the Wizard of Oz. Once peak credit sets in, all the Fed can do is bluff. The notion of a helicopter drop is pure nonsense.

What About A Crack-Up Boom?

We had a crack-up-boom. What else can you call the financial engineering that went with SIVs, Conduits, Toggle Bonds, Covenant Lite loans, Pay Option ARMs, etc., etc? That crack-up-boom is over. And just like every credit boom in history, the backside, once the credit boom ends is deflation. Previous examples include Tulip Mania, the South Sea Bubble, John Law Mississippi scheme, the Great Depression, and the property bust in Japan.

Weimar Germany was not a credit boom, but an example of hyperinflation caused by massive printing to pay for war reparations. Zimbabwe is another example of hyperinflation caused by printing.

What About Congress?

Congress, unlike the Fed, can indeed spend money it does not have. They have already done so with an ill-advised stimulus package. There will indeed be more stimulus packages just as there was in Japan. However, nothing can match the sheer number of jobs created in the housing and commercial real estate booms. And nothing can replace the destruction of wealth that is now taking place in housing and the equity markets.

Attitudes Lead The Way

It took nearly 80 years for people to get as reckless as they did in 1929. 80 years! Few are still alive that went through the great depression. That is the nature of the game. People have to forget what a depression is like to bring about the conditions that cause them. And they did. And they made the same mistakes over again, except larger.

The madness of crowds, however, can only go so far. A significant reversal is now underway. The secular peak in consumption has been reached. A reversal in attitudes towards consumption started with houses, but it's spreading to cars, boats, and even Starbucks coffee. It will take a long time for attitudes to get back to equilibrium. And attitudes, like pendulums, will not stop at equilibrium once they get there.

The odds of a significant bout of inflation now are about the same as they were in 1929. Next to none. History is about to repeat.

Actually 1970 was Vietnam.

First Gulf War was 1990's.

actually you are sorta right, before WW1 there was a major world recession, then in the 1914-1916 it was all booming again, you have the pin pointed in the right direction.... and this time around it can be very ugly.

Americans die in war for the interests of the illuminati. Every time they fall for the same lies and deception and every time it works. Hunker down for a big war.

What crackpot groups do you all belong to? The illuminati is a blast from the past.

I have to ask the op why in a global credit crunch and suppossed depression you would bother pre paying your debts now? Wouldnt it be better to pay as little as possible and hold dubloons?

Inflationary pressure sure will come and interest rates sure will rise but no economic asteriods greater then what happened in the 80s

Its 8.30 am so I guess you are all putting on your "end is nigh " placards and going out to greet the day

Enjoy

Oh, ok do praytell how old were you during the 80's? and what makes you so sure that things are going to be all rosy this time around? Do you feel that Vancouver and BC is immune to the down turn that is taking place in the world? Or may I ask what proof that the economics of the USA are great and every tree hangs a $100 bill? the writting is on the wall for a major SLOW DOWN in Vancouver. watch the next 6 months and watch closely. The service industry that Vancouver is will be slowing down as the houseing bubble slows. All the construction of new places are eventualy going to be finished then what?? the ttrades will be slowing as not many new places are going to be built till the inventories are sold. let me not start in on what is going on south of us....

cheers

Why isn't the US in depression now then??

Massive trade imbalance, high energy costs , 2 years of real estate meltdown?

So how old were you during the 80's? I trust you were not in the UK or Australia during those times because if you were the present situation would barely raise an eyelid.

During the early 80's I was 14 when I left home to go to work. The economy was so bad for my mother that I was a burden to feed. so for one less mouth and me being the oldest I left so my younger sister didn't have to worry so much. Jobs were hard to find, and if you had one that supported you, you kissed ass to keep it. talk to old timers that are in the trades today, ask them how hard it was to find construction work. It wasn't untill the work for EXPO 86 started to kick the BC economy again.... I was lucky enough to move to a small community and work in the forest industry. I kicked ass doing GRUNT work thru the mid 80's.

As for the why isn't the US in a depression now..... well Bonny, it isn't one of those things that happens over night.... you don't wake up one morning and then see the newspapers scream we are in a depression... it happens over a year... first what is/has been happening is the slow down of manufacturing jobs... companies start to lay off/ shut down because they have over inventories to sell off or move out.... look at the auto industry in Ontario for an example.... why do you think that the big guys are shutting down? look at he lumber mills here in BC.... why do you think they are shuting down or curtailing shifts? easy... over supply and no demand... in the auto industry they are still making SUV's that NO ONE WANTS..... pooof demand plummets..... shuts downs and layoffs..... now over a 3 month period of this happening.... the workers that had the $25+ an hour jobs Don't have that disposable income any more... they stop going to starbucks for $5 coffees.... stop eating at Ricky's.... stop buying NEW shoes.... purses.... ETC. the credit cards get MAXED out and the banks are starting to shut down the "oh I see you are at your limit... we will raise it by 5K" those days of extended credit are GONE...... now throw on top of that the people who get sucked into the "BRICK.... FUTURE SHOP..... HOME DEPOT..... NAME YOUR STORE......" they all have the buy now and DO NOT PAY for 6 MONTHS crap..... this credit shopping also produces a FALSE ECONOMY........ it is a spiral of consumer debt....... now you take a auto worker... or forest worker.... he is sucked into the buy now pay later.... a mortgaged home @ say 350K toss in gas bills hydro.... etc..... and now try and swing alll this on a UIC cheque......

he will shut the wallet...... when this happens in masses.... it creates the RECESSION...... now after it goes on for many many months and spreads around the world...... we get this massive shut down of production......... people don't have disposable incomes.... and fewer jobs ........ I will not give you a history lesson on the Depression......

cheers

Oh, one other thing I should have mentioned here.... during the roaring 20's CREDIT was cheap and there was an euphoric feeling of greatness and wealth,,,, people lined up for days to pre-buy unbuilt houses.... people bought stocks on credit.... the air of the land was wow ..... look at the past couple years across N. America..... see anything that is the same? we have let our guards down soo low as to the history of the past mistakes. we are doomed to follow what has happened in the past for we have made grave mistakes...... one other thing that SCREAMS trouble is the rate of spenders we have become.... no one saves for those rainy days.... get out your umbrella for the rains are about to start.....

cheers

here bonny, more rosy news for you.... can you see the slow down??http://finance.sympatico.msn.ca/investing/...umentid=8395253

<H1 class=articletitle>High wealth accumulation, free spending ways seen at end: TD report</H1>THE CANADIAN PRESSJuly 02, 2008OTTAWA - A new TD Bank report says Canadians should expect to see considerably slower gains in wealth in the next two years, limiting their ability to spend. The bank report says consumer spending will slow from a more than five per cent annualized rate of increase in early 2008 to about 2.6 per cent in 2009. Canadians have been able to spend "almost like drunken sailors" over the past two years because high commodity prices have brought great wealth into the country, the bank says. But most factors point to lower household wealth gains in the next couple of years, including stabilizing commodity prices, lower house price increases and higher unemployment. The bank said that nominal gross domestic product, which includes inflation, will fall from 5.9 per cent in 2007 to 4.1 per cent this year and 3.5 per cent in 2009. Real GDP, which adjusts for the impact of inflation, is also slowing from 2.7 per cent in 2007 to one per cent this year, before recovering somewhat to 1.8 per cent in 2009.


Party is over for wealth accumulation but hangover likely to be mild: TD
Julian Beltrame, THE CANADIAN PRESS
July 02, 2008
OTTAWA - Canadians can expect their recent growth in household wealth to slow considerably in the next two years, reducing their ability to spend and further cooling the economy, says a TD Bank report.
The analysis released Wednesday says Canadians have been able to live more opulently than their economic activity would normally allow because soaring commodity prices have brought wealth into the country that far exceeded productivity gains.
"Since 2005, there has been a clear divergence in consumer spending and overall economic growth," TD economists Craig Alexander and James Marple write.
"Households have been spending almost like drunken sailors over the past couple of years, which provided critical support to the economy when the export-oriented manufacturing sector has been suffering under the weight of a strong currency and flagging U.S. demand."
Now an after-binge hangover may already be setting in, the economists say, although it is likely to be mild.
They forecast that the rate of increase in consumer spending will fall by almost half to 2.6 per cent next year, from a pace of almost five per cent in the first part of 2008.
Meanwhile, growth in Canadian personal net worth is forecast to slow to 4.3 per cent this year and 4.9 per cent next, from 10.3 per cent and 6.4 per cent the previous two years.
Despite an economy that has seen slowing growth in real gross domestic product since 2004, the report cites several factors that have permitted Canadians to continue to spend and even increase their spending.
Underpinning all these factors were soaring commodity prices that bolstered profits and allowed corporations to hire more workers and pay higher wages.
As well, rising tax revenues from businesses and workers freed governments to reduce tax rates while increasing public-sector hiring and spending.
The TD report says this explains why most Canadians have not felt sharply pinched by the 0.3 per cent annualized first-quarter contraction in gross domestic product.
A better measure of Canadians' wealth, says the report, is nominal GDP - not adjusted for inflation or seasonal factors - which grew at a robust 4.6 per cent rate during the first three months of the year.
But the report forecasts that wealth accumulation will slow as commodity prices stabilize, unemployment rises to 6.7 per cent by the end of 2009 from the current 6.1 per cent, and home-price increases decelerate to two per cent this year and 3.5 per cent next year.
However, the TD forecast continues to be positive in terms of both wealth and spending.
It predicts real GDP, adjusted for inflation, will slow from 2.7 per cent in 2007 to one per cent this year, before recovering somewhat to 1.8 per cent in 2009.
"All the stars appear to be aligned for weaker consumer spending, but not a major slowdown," the report concludes.
"This represents a shift from booming spending growth to slightly below average gains next year."



remember, this is exactly the same speeal the US GOVT. was and still is spouting...... "don't worry folks, we aren't in a recession, its ok that you and your neighbors dont have jobs nor are there any on the horizon.... but remember we aren't in a recession"


cheers

i guess we lost Bonny, she must have decided to go out and get a sunburn today......

so best to start building that bomb shelther and get some guns! it's gonna be a wild ride for you city folk in your bee hives when the power gets cut!

Payinng off credit debt is exactly what the banks want you to do. They need to save their bottom line and are realizing people have overspent and don't have a job to pay back the debt.

If you really want to screw the banks, max out all credit options now. lol, everyone else is going to be in the same situation. The courts and law enforcement don't have enough resources to chase everyone down. Also if everyone doesn't pay back their credit, it might as well be doomsday and the new Great Depression. The financial system will be in ruins.

Sunburn means outside with free time at least for me it does so flacid white it is.

I will read your posts

The financial system will be in ruins. <<<<<<<<<<<<< it already is in ruins...... just wait for the derivatives market to unwind....... as for maxing out your credit now.... LOL that will just help the bankruptcy rates escalate....... the bills will still be showing up in the mailbox, and add to it the 18% interest..... and after that the MRGT. will become delinquent.... and the circle will keep on going......