www.canada.com/vancouversun/news/story.html?id=863af14b-10a4-46e4-a6a3-47382f9fa057

Foreclosures mount in U.S., but not in B.C.

http://www.househunting.ca/buying-homes/va...b0-4c2644e5840a

Main Points

"And by implication, the foreclosure rate remains quite low - if not historically low - in Canada," Guatieri said. "And it's miles different from the U.S. situation."

The Bank of Canada has numbers for how many sub-prime mortgages are in arrears. In the first quarter of 2008, 1.6 per cent of mortgages issued by Canada's top three sub-prime lenders were behind by at least three months. That's up from 1.0 per cent in the fall of 2006, when longer-term mortgages and zero-down mortgages were introduced. But it's still a lot lower than the rate of about 16 per cent in the U.S.

And the sub-prime market in Canada is much smaller than that in the U.S. Last year the Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals estimated that less than five per cent of Canadian mortgages were alternative, as they are called in Canada, compared to 20 per cent in the U.S.


What does a Yale professor know about Vancouver, unless he lives and enjoys the city.

Lifestyle = Priceless


Definitely don't sell out of fear & take your time before buying.

Keep it simple. While stocks can become tissue paper, real estate will never become worthless.

Key point:

The subject was about canada FACING US style bust.

i.e. it hasnt started yet - thus little in way of foreclosures... US is IN the bust.. Thus they have more foreclosures.

What part of this dont you understand?

Nothing, just making my point against the posting like you are making a point for it.

F.ck of Smelly. Get some balls to be a somebody one day.

If you can't take comments to your postings, start a BLOG.

Otherwise, get ready for some opposition.

so in effect if bc slips into a major? us type housing crash, if everyone stays where they Are there shouldnt be a problem? as the mortgage holders had to actually qualify for the repayment of the loan, where in america being gov backed who in heck cared if the people paid or not the gov was cughing up the losses. I bet guys like tony soprano were buying 20 houses a week and walking

didnt come out right but you get my drift

No you werent. You were posting completely unrelated facts.

Yup: "It's raining in Burnaby, the way the wind is blowing, it'll soon be raining downtown"

You: "If we look at the evidence, you'll see that it's currently VERY WET in burnaby, but dry as a bone in vancouver - therefor there's no chance of it raining in vancouver"



Im waiting for opposition. Unfortunately your arguments just consist of posting links to two totally unrelated things:

1. Canada doesnt have the subprime problem of the US
- Which is true it doesn't.. But that doesnt mean it's crash proof

2. America has more foreclosures than Canada
- Again, true.. But America is IN a crash.. We're ENTERING into one.. So that's EXACTLY what you'd expect...

Apart from that your arguments solely consist of making out that anyone who is talking about this crash as something which is going to happen is somehow WANTING it to happen.. Or cant afford a house.. or whatever.

This post has been edited by smelly: Oct 6 2008, 03:24 PM

Ok, Smelly you win.

Of course it is possible for Vancouver & Canada to crash.

How? Here's how. The CREDIT BUBBLE BURSTS, no one can get mortgages (are many cannot any longer).

Then we all lose our jobs (or many of us do), we all fall behind in our mortgage payments and eventually we get foreclosed.

Then all the RICH people with LOTS OF MONEY buy up all our homes for dirt cheap & rent it back out to us.

If there's no jobs, many won't even be able to pay rent, let alone food.

I guess you can get your women out on the streets to make some money for you then.

Of course, the rich will simply just buy up everything & get sexual services for dirt cheap (since there will be lots of supply).

So yes Smelly, you are correct!!!! Attention: REGISTER / LOGIN to view the image!

i'll pay $25/hour for Smelly's girl, if she's legit

tell her to call me, if there is a crash & another great depression ok

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Yup. That is EXACTLY what could happen. No-one said that a crash was a good thing. But bubbles pop. Better for it to pop now, than for it to get even bigger then explode in our faces!

LOL

Yes, Smelly, anything is hypothetically possible.

Let me know when you need to make some money ok, as some of my income is globally diversified. Attention: REGISTER / LOGIN to view the image!

See.. there you go again.. going off topic bragging about your money or how you think no-one else has any money.

No-wonder you seem to be obsessed with prostitution..

Ok. Sorry Smelly. And there are many others that make money overseas and spend it in Canada.

Just teasing you. I just don't like people who are lilke ANCHORS.

That's my problem.

Of course, I will be affected, many of my friends, family etc.

But while people are running around like chickens with their heads cut off, there's got to be a few of us that are focused & steady.

I went to Metrotown last Friday. It was SOOOOO BUSY (of course it was raining heavily too) but still. If people were scared, why are they still shopping?

Don't be scared ok, it just makes you look weak.

You seem to be the only one scared - by denying its happening and getting all defensive.

The rest of us are having a disccusion about it... :-)

Happening? What's happening? Get me some proof.

1) How many people were on Employment Insurance last yeat this time, as opposed to now? Seems to be the same.

2) What is the Unemployment Rate in Canada (seems to be very low) but did it increase at all, since last month?

3) Are banks really not giving out any more mortgages or letting people refinance? Not that I am aware of.

4) Are there lots of foreclosures? No.

5) Are there record amounts of companies going under in BC, let alone Canada?

These are some examples, we can go at it quite a bit longer.

Smelly, you definitely lack objective analysis.

Causes of the Great Depression

Recession cycles are thought to be a normal part of living in a world of inexact balances between supply and demand. What turns a usually mild and short recession or "ordinary" business cycle into a great depression is a subject of debate and concern. Scholars have not agreed on the exact causes and their relative importance. The search for causes is closely connected to the question of how to avoid a future depression, and so the political and policy viewpoints of scholars are mixed into the analysis of historic events eight decades ago. The even larger question is whether it was largely a failure on the part of free markets or largely a failure on the part of governments to curtail widespread bank failures, the resulting panics, and reduction in the money supply. Those who believe in a large role for governments in the economy believe it was mostly a failure of the free markets and those who believe in free markets believe it was mostly a failure of government that compounded the problem.

East Asia
The Great Depression in East Asia was of minor impact. The Japanese economy shrank by 8% 1929–31. However, with the invasion and subjugation of Manchuria into a Japanese puppet-state in September 1931, thus providing Japan with raw materials and energy, the Japanese economy was able to recover by 1932 and continued to grow.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_depression

gawd.. What has the "great depression" got to do with the price of peanuts?

A more closer example to whats happening in vancouver would be to quote the last big bust in Tokyo where properties prices got stupid to the point no-one wanted them any more... And a major crash/recession happened not because of high interest rates, or anything else.. but because people looked at tiny properties and realised they werent worth the money being asked, then there were a lot of people left with shitty small apartments they couldnt sell for half of what they paid for them (and probably never would be able to)

Cant find any good links on it.. sure someone here will.. I'll quote from wikipedia:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tokyo
"In the 1980s, real estate prices skyrocketed during an economic bubble. The bubble burst in the early 1990s and many companies, banks, and individuals were caught with real estate shrinking in value. A major recession followed, making the 1990s Japan's "lost decade"^[11] from which it is slowly recoverin"



Note: There was no subprimes, no high interest rates, no foreclosures.. The bubble just burst because people started realising the homes werent worth the money being asked for... Same as in what's happening in vancouver.

Let the chips fall where they may.

The markets will correct itself over the long-term.

I hope everyone does well but really Smelly, I couldn't care less because my family are adept at CONTINGENCY PLANNING.

Being PROACTIVE rather than REACTIVE.

We have learned to weather any storm. No fear.

Besides, I have already lost millions on paper during the IT Tech Boom crash.

I survived through that, I can survive through anything.

And there are many people like me too. Attention: REGISTER / LOGIN to view the image!

Agree smelly,
plus, Supply / Demand - Sales 1/2 of before, listings X2 of before - it really is simple, maybe too simple for some.

- interest rates will go down
- foreclosure rates are all time low
- unemployment is all time low
- 5% of mortgages in Canada are risky (ie subprime style)
- C$ going down, so exports should be more affordable (ie to China)
- Harper will tap into the Northern resources (gold, diamond, oil)
- while services will take a hit, everyone still needs resources
- 2010 Olympics

Let's see what happens. Time will tell. Attention: REGISTER / LOGIN to view the image!

We have forecasted. Let's see what happens for the 3rd quarter 2008 & 1st quarter 2009.

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- rental vacancy is extremely low
- Asian investors have not taken as much of a risk as US & Europe
- if US & Europe are risky, where will they keep their money
- Canada has the less risky economy out of all G7 nations
- Microsoft opening office in Richmond, BC that will create 700 new jobs in the west

Let's see what happens.

Let the chips fall where they may.

only realtors are sh1tting themselves

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gawd.. here's "straight talk" again ignoring the issues posted and just posting non-related stuff again to "prove" his point.

Sorry - off topic..

Am i the only person who keeps seeing this smiley:



As a fat bloke in a thong?

LOL

We will be at it forever my friend.

Though I agree that the stock market is considered a leading economic indicator, there's a lot of fear out there that is skewing it.

Greed & Fear always move markets in a more or lesser degree in the short-term & then correct over the long-term.

The thing is unless, the majority of economic indicators prove otherwise, then I will keep my stance and not add fuel to the fear fire.

So you can keep talking until you are blue but you have not convinced me yet.

Economic indicator
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_indicators

An economic indicator (or business indicator) is a statistic about the economy. Economic indicators allow analysis of economic performance and predictions of future performance.

Economic indicators include various indices, earnings reports, and economic summaries, such as unemployment, housing starts, Consumer Price Index (a measure for inflation), industrial production, bankruptcies, Gross Domestic Product, broadband internet penetration, retail sales, stock market prices, and money supply changes. Economic indicators are primarily studied in a branch of macroeconomics called "business cycles". The leading business cycle dating committee in the United States of America is the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Economic indicators fall into three categories: leading, lagging and coincident.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is the principal fact-finding agency for the U.S. government in the field of labor economics and statistics. Other producers of economic indicators includes the United States Census Bureau and United States Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Coincident indicators are those which change at approximately the same time and in the same direction as the whole economy, thereby providing information about the current state of the economy. Personal income, GDP, industrial production and retail sales are coincident indicators. A coincident index may be used to identify, after the fact, the dates of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

You don't get more scientific & objective than that my friend. Attention: REGISTER / LOGIN to view the image!

At the moment i cant be arsed to write a huge reply. Its too late. I might come in and explain it in simple terms for you tomorrow.

But look what happened in japan in the early 90's... Pretty much the same situation...

The house prices tanked, for no reason other than people suddenly realised they didnt want to pay (made up numbers) $700k for a 100 sq ft apartment.. and once prices started falling - everyone realised prices were CONSIDERABLY over priced and it kept going down... And cause a recession.

No sub primes.. no high interest rates.. no poor economy.. But it tanked....

Vancouver has the same problem.. prices have already started falling for no other reason than people have come to conclusion they're over priced...

But wait.. we also have POTENTIAL issues of economy tanking and higher interest rates (read todays papers)...

Bubble going pop.